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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 68-M.Dunn and 69-L.Watson reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right tackle to JAX 45 for 3 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model