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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP