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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model