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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 90

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 72 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 18 for no gain (20-P.Strong).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model