Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(3:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.77 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model