4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to NE 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model