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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to NE 41, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model