Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 61

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to PIT 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 9. 19-C.Austin to PIT 9 for no gain (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.51 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model