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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model