Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 69

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(5:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to PIT 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model