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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NE 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.00 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model