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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 77

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP