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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 21 for 5 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model