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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model