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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 45

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 35 yards to PIT 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 15 for 5 yards (18-M.Slater; 45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model