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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann pass short right to 13-O.Zaccheaus to DAL 39 for 28 yards (18-J.Tolbert, 89-P.Hendershot).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model