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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to DAL 29 for 1 yard (21-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP