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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to ATL 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model