Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(1:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to ATL 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford to ATL 47 for 23 yards (22-C.Edmonds, 32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.88 EP
63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model