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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to ATL 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford to ATL 46 for 18 yards (98-A.Nelson; 51-J.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.12 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP