Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

(11:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.14 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model