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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP