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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 87

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to ATL 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model