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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 7, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for 13 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model