Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to ATL 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 28 for 16 yards (22-C.Edmonds). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.81 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model