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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model