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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to TB 47 for 2 yards (59-A.Smith). FUMBLES (59-A.Smith), and recovers at TB 48.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -1.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model