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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to TB 9 for 2 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.48 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model