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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 2

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.69 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP