Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(13:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.06 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model