4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ATL 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford to ATL 42 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model