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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to CAR 37, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model