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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to ATL 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model