Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 17 for 1 yard (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model