Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 21

(:34) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 5, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-25-N.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.33 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -2.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model