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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 5

Buffalo Bills 21 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 5, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP