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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:51) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-D.Harty to BUF 33 for 11 yards (54-S.Williams, 99-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model