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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 17 for 5 yards (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP