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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 13-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to HOU 43, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model