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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 22

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to TEN 19 for 3 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model