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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model