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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 13 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(:06) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to HOU 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model