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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 16 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 13-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model