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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 65

Houston Texans 16 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 29 for 6 yards (47-A.Beck).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model