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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model