Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to KC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-R.James to KC 26 for 18 yards (53-C.Elliss). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model