Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – New England Patriots 10

(:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to NE 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-M.Bryant to NE 35 for 6 yards (44-Ca.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.35 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model