Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 93

New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reagor (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

What Happened

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 93, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP