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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to KC 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-R.James ran ob at KC 27 for 15 yards (45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP