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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 87

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to CIN 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 39 for 10 yards (91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model